10 May: Broad, ranging action above CBOL to close higher

Yesterday was a big down day, but then the market recovered in the US session and then added more in the early part of the ON session. It then reversed ON back to the close, but in so doing a higher high was formed and since then the market has added 100pts and it’s still going. If this move stops at the upper edge of the downward channel, around 12100 to 12126 (yesterday’s high). then it will just be a rally within the current trend, if it extends beyond that, then the market has broken the channel. On the downside will be the gap close. If it breaks yesterday’s lows at 11957, we will see another day of selling, but it’s Friday and the market is already down 500pts from last Friday’s close so maybe it is time for a breather as traders will also be reluctant to take on new positions ahead of a weekend of potential madness from Donnie Trump Jr. to N. Korea to trade talks… anything really could happen.

Futures opened at 12050, leaving a gap of -20pts against the cash close and +76 against the futures close. The futures open was within yesterday’s range so there are no ex-gaps.

Sleep – what time did I go to bed? Slept all day yesterday
How much coffee have I had? Half a mediumpot
How do I feel? Very good

Time stamp: 8:40
Scenario 1: ON strength continues and market shoots up to test the upper edge of the channel and the high, is rejected on the first attempt but then powers through towards 12214 and then 12250
Scenario 2: powers up to test the upper side of the channel and high at 12126 and then falls away to range all day, eventually finding buyers at the gap fill
Scenario 3: declines on the open, find support 12028 and from there makes an assault on the upper side of the channel and then falls to gap fill and beyond as traders sell ahead of the weekend.

first one was the closest… but none were tradeable

This was a textbook ranging day between 12009 and 12134ish

• the  first move was a push into the monthly pivot at 12111, which the market did in two stages, misssing on the first push and overshooting on the second – which just about set up as a 3Min Bolli
• there were some very strong levels above the monthly pivot – high, weekly s3, fibs and therreforemy RES 1 level – and the market’s failure to collect these orders at the open was a bearish sign
• between the monthly pivot and R1 there were no singificant levels and the market moved back and forth to form a traingle above R1 and around the TL formed in the futures session
• in line with the negative stage set by the failure to reach KLs, the traingle eventually broke downwards towards CBOL and the futures close
• it overshot CBOL by 6pts, so this long needed to be taken exactly at the level to avoid a stopout – as is always the case in a ranging market..
• an alternative way of trading this would have been to take a long on the break of the triangle below futures close
• once it found orders – or exhausted the selling – it rocketed back up to the monthly pivot, gaining more than 50pts in 5 bars
• after that, the market continued to see braod ranging action, forming a gentle downward channel which broke after hours to see a new HOD

How precise were my levels? RES 1 wasn’t seen until late in the US session when it saw a couple of shallow pullbacks before being breached into the close; this was a logical place to put the level and the market had the whole day to work off any selling pressure. SUP 1 area triggered a reversal before the US open but was overshot by 18 pts so a buy would have been stopped.

TOTAL = -2.3R | # Trades 3 | Winners 0 | BE 0
Average R per winner = n/a | Losses > 1R = 0 | Scratched = 1
R-multiples: trades 2:1 or more = 1 | trades 5:1or more  = 0

Outcome using standard TP strategy and same trades
2:1 trades (1R) + 5:1 trades (0 x 2.5R) + BE (0R) + Losses (-2R) = -1R
My results vs. SYS = xR

ON TILT trades = 0 (0R)
Rule of 3 trades = 0 (0R)
Scratched trades =  1 (variance vs. rules = -1.3R)
Average coherence = 2.9

This only just popped out the Bolli Band – a breach of a flat Bolli Band at a strong,strongis diffinitely a trade to take. With an exact entry, it would have just about got to 5R, but failing that, it would have seen 1R easily and maybe given the ranging PA, I could have taken more off at CBOL…. maybe