18 Apr – Pops down to BNR then trends up all day to exceed CBOL

Yesterday the market broke out to new multi-month highs. ON there has been a pullback to the 73.6% retrace of this most recent trending move, so from here the path of least resistance is upwards, and there are the cash and futures gaps above. If the market breaks below the 73.4% retrace – which is also at confluence with the BNR at 12100 – then there are multiple layers of support below which only a powerful trending move would be able to get through. There is no confluence around the 61.8% but below it is 12037 where levels are lining to provide robust support.

Futures opened at 12105, leaving a gap of -48pts against the cash close and -67 against the futures close. The futures open was within yesterday’s range so there are no ex-gaps.

Sleep – what time did I go to bed? 23:30 so 7.25hrs sleep
How much coffee have I had? half a medium pot
How do I feel? good with plenty of energy and insights from my breath practice

Time stamp: 8:35
Scenario 1: fills cash and futures gap and then declines steady throughout out the day to end the day around 12030
Scenario 2: approaches gap but doesn’t quite fill it and then sells off more intensely and breaks through some supports without a pause
Scenario 3: collects more orders at the 73.4% retrace and BNR level and then retests yesterday’s highs – spot on as low was 129097

The market dropped down to the BNR level, exceeded it by a few points and then trended up for the rest of the day.

• continuing the strong trend, the market moved up at the open up to the daily pivot and weekly R2
• from there it began a decline but pausing at the Jan-Fen fib as it had done on the way up
• there were layers of support below beginning with an H1 TL, the 73.6% fib of the current move and then the BNR at 12100 and below that CBOS and S1
• the market slowed at the first level and reversed at the BNR without having made it to CBOS and S1
• the reversal was strong but respected level nevertheless and the pauses at each level allowed for some excellent Imp-Corr and retest entries

How effective was my Neutral Zone? There were many levels close together so in the end I put the top boundary of the Neutral Zone at the gap close and it duly saw a small retrace and then bust through – after which it gained another 90pts.
How precise were my levels? SUP 1 was not a good level because of the BNR, CBOL and S1 below. This should have been 12100 with a plan for what to do once the market reached the first layer of support which was the TL. RES 1 was a zone rather than a level – so that it included the Jan-Feb fib and weekly R2) and this worked well. R2 was also correct but R3 was an underestimate as the market moved through it to make a new high a retest the TL

TOTAL = +1.4R | # Trades 22 | Winners 6 | BE 2
Average R per winner = 2.2 | Losses > 1R = x | Scratched (loss<1R) = 1
R-multiples: trades 2:1 or more = x | trades 5:1or more  = x

Outcome using standard TP strategy and same trades
2:1 trades (6R) + 5:1 trades (3 x 2.5R) + BE (0R) + Losses (-14xR) = -01.5R
My results vs. SYS = +0.8R
ON TILT trade = 6 (-4.7R)
Rule of 3 = 0
Scratched = 1 variance vs. rules = -1R

Short description

Summary with scenarios

Futures opened at 12105, leaving a gap of -48pts against the cash close and -67 against the futures close. The futures open was within yesterday’s range so there are no ex-gaps.

Sleep – what time did I go to bed?
How much coffee have I had?
How do I feel?

Time stamp: 8:35
Scenario 1: fills cash and futures gap and then declines steady throughout out the day to end the day around 12030
Scenario 2: approaches gap but doesn’t quite fill it and then sells off more intensely and breaks through some supports without a pause
Scenario 3: collects more orders at the 73.4% retrace and BNR level and then retests yesterday’s highs

One sentense

• bullets

How effective was my Neutral Zone?
How precise were my levels?

TOTAL = x.xR | # Trades x | Winners x | BE x
Average R per winner = x.x | Losses > 1R = x | Scratched (loss<1R) = x
R-multiples: trades 2:1 or more = x | trades 5:1or more  = x

Outcome using standard TP strategy and same trades
2:1 trades (xR) + 5:1 trades (0x x 2.5R) + BE (0R) + Losses (-xR) = xR
My results vs. SYS = xR
ON TILT trade = x (xxR)

This was just about within my trading session and was a lovely 10R buy. Once the market had retraced to 12100, it formed a clear uptrend, continuing recent trending move.  After closing the gap, the market formed a textbook retrace down to previous resistance at the pivot and weekly R2 which also coincided with the intraday 73.6% fib. From there price contracted for a few bars and then broke back upwards.