18 Mar – Slow, slow but drift was lower

The market is in a clear, but slowing uptrend. It has formed a new upward TL to support it but has dropped out of the initial uptrend. Above, there are lots of levels to aim for, with Friday’s high and a significant previous low at 11724 and daily cash chart 200MA at 11789. I will trade long today above Friday’s high but will be mostly focused on TL breaks to the downside. I will also be looking for value levels to buy – perhaps the pivot at 11662 and then the weekly pivot at 11625.

Futures opened at 11703, leaving a gap of +17pts against the cash close and +16 against the futures close. The futures open was within Friday’s range so there are no ex-gaps.

Sleep – what time did I go to bed? 23:10, but woke up a lot during the night with a mixture of anxierty, huge energy and insight
How much coffee have I had? Half aluminium pot
How do I feel? Am I going to win today? Feel quite neuttral but out of practice so I will take it easy.

For the market to go higher, it must break several lines of resistance: first is the TL from Friday’s high the ON PA and after that, there is Friday’s high at 11726 – which is also a long term PA KL. There are layers of levels below where orders will be waiting, including the 74.6% retrace of the current move and then the weekly pivots. If the market moves down through the upward sloping on the H4 chart, I will be looking to get on board for a large move.

Key points about today’s PA and setups that worked

ATR is 114 and the range during the first hour was 40pts

• in this low volatility environment the Jigsaw trade worked as expected for 1:1
• after this, fading the gap fills was the next obvious trade as trading at the gaps is the market’s path of laest resistance
• levels and TLs were respected and new highs and lows were sold and bought, so the 3Min Bolli system worked a treat here.
• once the amrket had accepted below Friday’s close prices it moved gently lower in a few tradeable moves but ended the day at -0.25%
• the market eacted to 11675 area today but I can’t see why

How effective was my Neutral Zone? All trade was within the Neutral Zone today and the market did not trend so I can assume that this was fairly accurate in describing where prices were in the doldrums
How precise were my levels? SUP 1 was the only level in play toady and it gave two nice 1R setups

TOTAL = 2.5R | # Trades 7 | Winners 4 | BE 1
Average R per winner = 0.9 | Losses > 1R = 0 | Scratched (loss<1R) = 1
R-multiples: trades 2:1 or more = 4 | trades 5:1or more  = 0
Outcome using standard TP strategy and same trades:
(STE at 1:1 50% off at +20 and 50% off at +50)
2:1 trades (4R) + 5:1 trades (0 x 2.5R) + BE (0R) + Losses (-1xR) = 3R
Variance vs. SYS = -1R

This was a 3Min Bolli at a H1 TL and the second time the session that the level was hit. The market was in volatility mode with an ATR at 114 and a tiny opening range of around 30pts. The market made a new high above the TL but this was quickly sold, leaving a lovely doji. This was a 3.5R trade