20 May: Fills the gap then it’s curtains for the bulls

Friday was an inside day and there is a triangle forming on the H1 chart so today is definitely a case for looking for breakouts. A move to the upside is with-trend and there are unfilled gaps above: the closing gap from 3rd May at 12412 and ex-gap at 12344, so those are obvious targets. On the downside, the market is currently sitting on the supporting Tl that has defined this move and been in place since 13th May. If this breaks down, we could see a move to 12045-78 which would be a 50% retrace of last week’s move and a confluence of fibs.

Futures opened at 12236, leaving a gap of -3pts against the cash close and +37 against the futures close. The futures open was within yesterday’s range so there are no ex-gaps.

Sleep – what time did I go to bed? 22:45 but then I looked at screens and listened to my phone
How much coffee have I had? Half a large pot
How do I feel? Good and excited – been for a walk and sat by the lake- gorgeous – that is what I want above anything

Timestamp:8:45
Scenario 1: dip down to BNR and futures close at 12199 and then up to fill the gaps at 12344 and 12412
Scenario 2: breaks supporting TL early on and trends down all day in an orderly fashion with nice pullbacks at levels and sees a low at 12131 – filled gap first and the trend was strong
Scenario 3: ranges between 12271 (Friday high) and 12200 all day – maybe with a couple of false breaks either side

Missed the obvious: bounces off 12200 and then fills the closing gap and trends down all day..

Fills the gap and then it’s curtains for the bulls

• the futures opened almost exactly where the cash market closed on Friday but steadily moved down during the session
• in textbook fashion, the market dipped down to fill the futures gap-  which was in confluence with the daily 21MA and the TL I wrote about above – and then bounced off there to fill the cash gap 40pts above
• the cash gap was also at conflunce with the TL – the upper side of the triangle that had formed ON
• things were not looking too lively at this point, with the market needing one hour to travel 40pts up and dow
• however, once the gap was filled, the selling was intense
• on the way down, there was no pause at previous support even though it was a cash chart MA
• CBOL and S1 also failed to inspire much buying
• the first real pause was at Friday’s low when the market bounced to retests the nearest pivot levels
• once there were rejected. the market fell straight through the low and didn’t see much of a reversal until S3 – since Friday was an inside day, traders would have been looking for a break of the high or low
• the LOD was 11994 which was 38.2% FIB of the current move, the 23.6% of the last trend but also weekly CBOS – I don’t use that level on my chart but maybe I should

How effective was my Neutral Zone? Upper boundary wasn’t in play while lower boundary was spot on – the market bounced off it in the first half hour up to fill the cash gap.
How precise were my levels? SUP1 was the Neutral Zone boundary and spot on; SUP 2 had no impact and the market powered straight through it; SUP 3 saw a 20pt bounce and the LOD was 55pts below it. None of the RES levels was in play.

TOTAL = 5.5R | # Trades 12 | Winners 4| BE 3
Average R per winner = 2.6 | Losses > 1R = 0 | Scratched = 1
R-multiples: trades 2:1 or more = 4 | trades 5:1or more  = 5

Outcome using standard TP strategy and same trades
2:1 trades (4R) + 5:1 trades (2 x 2.5R) + BE (0R) + Losses (-4R) = 5R
My results vs. SYS = +0.5R

ON TILT trades = 0 (0R)
Rule of 3 trades = 1 (-1R)
Scratched trades =  0 (variance vs. rules = 0R)
Average coherence = 1.9

This was undoubtedly the gap fill fade. With an entry on the level and a 10pt SL I was stopped on the first attempt, but because the rejection of the level was clear, and the TL above gave it a good reason to overshoot, it was asking for a second entry. Also, the trade setup as a 3Min Bolli, adding to the probability of it working. The move from gap fill to the cash session low was  250pts, making this a 25R entry.