Mean reversion Archives

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Trading Psychology Blog Posts
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Entries and exits

25

Where to enter a fade – 25/4/18
Take profit strategy
Entries, exits and stop to entry – the ex-gap fade – 13/4/18
Taking two trades to add risk to a great setup
Why retest/retrace entries are less risky than breaks
Three ways of looking at a perfect long entry after a breakout
Reactive entries
Planned entry required to take the 1st trading day of the year long
Multiple Advantages of accurate entries
Moving stops in favour
The dilemmas around STE at 1:1
In what circumstances do I close trades before their Stop Loss?
How using STE at +10 worked for me today (13 Feb)
Need to be careful with uisng orders
Impatient, reactive entry costs me the trade
Some days are less lucky but STE at 1:1 was an acount saver today
Could I have sold the open or was it too fast (video)
Re-entering a scratched trade adds to the loss
Some ideas on Retests vs. straight breaks of levels
Using a retest entry
What does ‘absolutely compelling’ mean
Sell orders for 3Min Bolli rejected
My fast entries increase risk
A ranging market requires precise entries
How waiting for confirmation increases risk

Reference

4

What is a Bear squeeze?
Broker overnight prices
Dax Futures trading hours
RES 1, RES 2, RES 3, SUP 1, SUP 2, SUP 3

What I do and when

6

When to stand aside
Building a trade around a PA scenario
Use of different accounts during the session
Less is more, no trading after 11:00
Using PA Context to select trades
Why I don’t trade the next day after an over-trading session

Chart reading skills

60

Buying a big gap down on a Monday
Ability to identify PA context intraday
It’s rocketing and I am not on board…
The 3Min Bolli-Band System and two very different days
Identifying and trading compression patterns
My setups require these PA reading skills
How to use the 169 to trade a large gap down and a strong trending move
Ranging PA and how to identify it early in the session
When it’s good to trade counter trend
When inside the neutral zone, there can’t be an Imp/Corr sequence so how do I trade M1 TLs?
Why it pays to keep long term price charts in mind
This is what the PA looked like before a break down
Imp-Corr structure breaks and the trend reverses
Anatomy of the 4 Jan rally (NFP day)
Effectiveness of 169 for finding value in a tight market
The magic of fibs
Failing 3Min Bolli fade means we’re trending
169 on M15 is powerful
Five KLs within 13pts of one another means it’s time to stand aside
Thinking through scenarios: anticipation instead of reaction
While above CBOL, trade on the long side looking for value buys at KLs
While above CBOL, trade on the long side looking for value buys at KLs
Using the daily cash chart to trade on the M1
Finding active levels (clue: not the 169 – use FIBs instead)
Power of unfilled gaps as targets and reversal points
All gaps closed by this week’s action
Accuracy of levels and TLs
Bird in Flight sequence example (14 Feb)
Failure to break Imp-Corr TL leads to some very messy action
Mean reversion
ATR down to 126 and range 50pts – what to do?
Should I really be shorting above CBOL, high etc.
The power of the cash chart Weekly 200MA
A short and double bottom
Long term analysis with TLs and Fibs
Perfect example of ranging PA
Perfect example of ranging PA and the trades that worked
What PA told me the market had switched from ranging to trending?
What is a washout?
When RES or SUP breaks in Fut session
Should I be using Zones instead of levels? Or a mixture of both?
Should I be using Zones instead of levels? Or a mixture of both?
Ex-gap from a low is irrelevant if the market approaches it from above
Buying pullbacks on a strong open needs to be part of my plan
ON TLs provided support – often seems to be an important level
Using zones instead hasn’t worked too well so far
How 2pts on a SUP/RES levels makes a huge difference
What doesn’t happen is as important as what does
Positioning of RES 1 when there are multiple levels
Strength of levels compared
Does this market need a blow-off top to reverse it and will we get it today (24 April)?
Why low ATR makes trading so difficult and what I can do about it
169 gives important info. on all TFs today
Big losses on shorts but at least not in sequences
TLs in different places on different TFs
Was this a washout? What was the psychology behind today’s moves?
Again, what didn’t happen told me what would happen
A case for a support zone around SUP 1
Question today was ‘where is there a really good value buy?’
Ranging PA so don’t take a break

Examples and Fine Tuning

68

When to trade 3Min BB setup against the Neutral Zone
Imp/Corr TL breaks are the wrong strategy for consolidation
Impluse phase over and scalping against Neutral Zone works
Trading the 3Min Bolli counter-trend and on 2nd hit
Weak vs. strong 3Min Bolli Band setups
Why confluence is better than confirmation
Trading my SUP and RES lines on the M1 chart
Why the 3Min Bolli doesn’t work if there is a stair-step into it
Taking retests of levels against 3Min Bolli signal
TL breaks not to take
Using Pin Bars to enter trades
Trading a break back into a level
Trade selection when fading the 169
Impatient entry cost 1.5R
To fade or not to fade when the market hits the 169?
J-Lo fails and then broken triangle reversal sets up for a 7R trade
Trading the 169 on the M3 Chart
Trade took 7 mins to set up and I talked myself out of it
When the 3Min Bolli fails, look for an Impulsive-Corrective structure
J-Los that didn’t work, but were they valid setups?
Using probability-thinking to trade a break out
The key to making STE at 1:1 work for me is precise entries
Reactive 169 trades that don’t work (and weren’t likely to..)
Using a triangle at the 169 and below a level to trade a break of it (H-C-B)
Triangles and compressions are the best way to trade breaks
Why trading breakouts using traingles above or below them is much safer
Reading market flow to choose the highest probability 169 fades
When the 3Min Bolli fails but presents an Imp-Corr structure opportunity instead
Triangle and 169 how not to trade it
When is the H-C-B entry towards the KL valid?
The 2nd chance 3Min Bolli entry
When the Imp-Corr structure breaks, I know intraday PA context has changed
Just to hammer this home, here’s another 169 not to fade …
Perfect H-C-B setup but counter-trend
Perfect example of the 2nd Chance 3Min Bolli setup
Why it’s necessary to wait for a move back inside the 3Min Bolli Bands before taking a break
The power of J-Los
Triangle gives perfect entry for TL break
Triangles and the rule of three
Using my ‘Rule of 3’ to select triangles
Trading the 3Min Bolli counter trend
Two lovely H-C-B sells – but taken below the Bolli Band
Perfect spike at cash open but doesn’t run
Once price has broken out, 3Min Bolli loses big time
Jigsaw trade – which ones were valid?
Using Rule of 3 for Jigsaw
Market opens above CBOL – so how do I get on board?
Retest of a strong, strong level
Twice today the best setups were not Bolli Bands
Unspectacular J-Lo marks the final long for the day
Jigsaw counter-trend vs. with trend
Video reveals PA was much harder to trade than it appears on a static cahrt
Strong ON and trending but market also reacting to levels so H-C-B and 3Min Bolli claen up
Possibilities for 3Min Bolli 2nd chance entries
Jigsaw example
Taking a straight break is a recipe for disaster
Just buy Fut close (twice)… that’s it
Jigsaws with-trend are so much easier
Is gap fill outside Bollis two trades or one?
Too many entries at a sub-standard 3Min Bolli
What would have worked?
Selecting retests according to PA context
Using second spike to take 3Min Bolli entries
You could never say that this was a fantastic Jigsaw setup
Triangles below KLs
Triangle below a level scores again
Triangles are a great way of trading a broken KL or TL
Imp/Corr short makes 4R but looks invalid on the static chart

Technical skills

27

24 July 2018 – didn’t recognise strength and missed a KL
6 Aug – Missed an area of confluence
Need to get more out of successful trades
Must plan entry on the FUT opening spike
Decisions, decisions…
Up 4R today – what went so well?
When to trade a reversal of a break out above/below a KL or TL
Trading a triangle with the broken triangle reversal pattern
How to build a position by taking partial profits
Married – for richer or poorer – to the idea of a bear squeeze
Triangle below KL but break is UP
Fading opening spikes into levels

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