Two trades got to 19 pips and then reversed. This cost me 2R. I don’t want to get into the habit of closing trades earöly or taking profits early because this interferes with the stats.
In Thinkmg, Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman talks about regression to the mean as a ubiquitous force in our lives but because our brains and meaning-makers and lovers of association, we don’t see it. In my view, we attach to and personalise outcomes and in so doing, we interfere with these natutal forces.
But then again, the 11:07 trade came within 1pt of being stopped BE and for now – 10:41 – it’s still alive. This happens often but the situations that go against me make a much bigger impression in the moment and in memory.
Results for STE at 1:1 in February 2019
Avoidable losses on trades that hit 1:1 = -2096 (-2.3R)
Missed wins on trades where STE at 1:1 missed the move
1x 5:1 (3.5R) + 3 x 2:1 (2R) = 5.5R
Trades where STE at 1:1 saved a loss
11 x BE trades (+11R) 11 x 2:1 or more trades (+5.5R) = 16.5R
In Feb, the total theoretical value of STE at 1:1 = 11R
Actual = 11R -2.3.R + 1R = +9.7R (trade that should have been 1:1 but wasn’t)
My impulse to interfere with trades includes wanting to ‘give them a little more room’ instead of using STE at 1:1.
My new Edgewonk journal will have a flag for this. On principle it’s fine, but it would have to be consistent, otherwise the decision is influenced by how my day is unfolding and what happened to most recent trades.
